Applying for an IPO is not buying. It is entering a ballot. When an offer is oversubscribed (almost every popular one is), a computerised draw decides who receives shares. Your odds depend on two things: how hot the IPO is, and how the retail pool is tiered.
How the ballot works
- The retail tranche is split into bands by application size, and balloting runs within each band.
- Issuers usually try to spread shares across many applicants, so smaller applications often enjoy better relative odds than people expect.
- You pay upfront when you apply. If you are not allotted, the money is refunded, typically within days.
What real allotment rates look like
From the balloting reports CISCOM has digitised so far: on quieter IPOs (under 10x oversubscribed), roughly three in four retail applications in our data succeeded. On the hottest IPOs (above 50x), the average success rate drops to about one in nine. The exact odds vary by band and are published in each IPO's balloting announcement after the draw.
Practical takeaways
- Expect to miss hot IPOs often. An 11% ballot rate means most applicants walk away with a refund.
- Decide your application size with the band structure in mind, not just your budget.
- Never apply with money you need next week. It is locked from application until refund.
Check the tiers
Pro members see per-tier balloting odds on every IPO page, plus a calculator for their own application size.
See what Pro includes →