Oversubscription is the most-quoted number in Malaysian IPO coverage: applications received versus shares offered. But does a hot ballot actually mean a strong first day? Here is the full history, bucketed by demand (listed IPOs with both figures, as of July 2026).
Under 5x oversubscribed
54 IPOs: average first-day open -5.8%, only 35% opened up
5x to 20x
81 IPOs: average +8.5%, 49% opened up
20x to 50x
69 IPOs: average +17.7%, 71% opened up
50x to 80x
33 IPOs: average +43.1%, 91% opened up
Above 80x
44 IPOs: average +136.2%, and every single one opened above its offer price
What this does and does not mean
- The relationship is strong and it is monotonic: each demand bucket has done better than the one below it.
- The tails are dramatic. Weak-demand IPOs (under 5x) have opened DOWN on average. The hottest ballots (80x+) have never opened below offer in our data.
- This is history, not destiny. A first-ever miss in the 80x+ bucket is always possible, and buckets with 33 or 44 IPOs are small samples.
- Oversubscription is announced only after balloting, days before listing. The edge is in reading demand signals earlier than that.
This pattern is exactly why oversubscription is the heaviest input in CISCOM's first-day forecast model, and why the forecast sharpens the moment balloting results drop.
See demand plotted
The Demand to Debut chart plots every Malaysian IPO by oversubscription and first-day result.
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